Fiber to the home in full swing, FTTX seems to be dead end.

Source: Time:2018-10-16 14:53:07 浏览次数:

Recently, China Telecom launched the collection of PON equipment in 2014. This collection continues the bidding mode of last year. One stage is the bidding of OLT and MDU, and the second stage is the bidding of terminal products. Influenced by the telecommunication construction mode, the bidding scale of OLT and MDU in this gathering and acquisition project has been greatly reduced compared with 2013, and new ones have been built.

Recently, China Telecom launched the collection of PON equipment in 2014. This collection continues the bidding mode of last year. One stage is the bidding of OLT and MDU, and the second stage is the bidding of terminal products. Influenced by the telecommunication construction mode, the bidding scale of OLT and MDU has decreased significantly compared with 2013. New OLT 330,000 PON ports and ONU 1.58 million wide and narrow bands have been built, which are 63% and 77% lower than 2013 respectively.
The reduction of bidding scale also shows that after nearly 10 years of development, the pace of FTTX construction of China Telecom has slowed down. Especially after the complete decoupling of terminals, the cost of fiber-to-home construction has further decreased, and MDU is no longer the preferred choice for the development of broadband telecommunications. According to the analysis of the OVUM authoritative consultation report, global PON OLT shipments will further decline in the next few years, and it is expected that by 2018, its shipments will be sharply reduced from 41 million to 13 million. The downward trend of the overall market trend has further reduced the survival space of PON equipment manufacturers.
Influenced by market environment, industrial chain and other factors, the quotation of each manufacturer in this gathering and mining is more rational, and the price of all kinds of products has not changed much compared with 2013, which fully reflects the mentality of each manufacturer for this gathering and mining. Of course, from its own point of view, Telecom still hopes to significantly reduce the purchase cost of PON equipment through collecting and mining, and this game will continue in the next few years. In addition, collecting and mining is also a mirror through which we can see the development trend of technology and changes in market conditions.
How far can "FTTB" go?
As PON itself, the background of its technology originates from FTTH. In foreign countries, operators basically adopt FTTH construction mode, and there is no transition stage of "FTTB". In China, owing to the high cost of ODN in the initial stage of FTTH construction, and in order to make more effective use of existing copper wire resources, the construction modes of FTTB, FTTN and FTTC have been derived. Since 2006, the three major domestic operators have deployed tens of millions of lines of FTTB. Although the user access bandwidth has been greatly improved compared with the past, with the emergence of new services with high bandwidth, the pressure of broadband competition among operators has increased, and the three major operators have turned their eyes to FTTH.
Of course, the rapid development of VDSL and 10G PON technology in recent years is still continuing the life cycle of FTTB, but due to the quality of copper wire, node sinking, and the difficulty of network transformation and other factors, the combination of these two technologies with FTTB construction is not much, only in some colleges and universities, or in some cases where optical fiber is difficult to enter the home. Whether or not optical copper can really achieve progress is still a question mark.
"SFU" and "HGU" are converging.
In the Chinese market, for ONT products, operators are used to define them as two categories, one is HGU supporting TR069 and three-tier functions, and the other is SFU not supporting the above functions. Operators are also very clear about the positioning of these two types of products. In terms of software functions and port number, HGU features are more prominent, but in terms of cost, SFU will have more advantages.
Although operators have a clear division of SFU and HGU, products are also keeping pace with changes in market demand. At present, most broadband users have not opened IPTV, fixed telephone and other services, which makes SFU with lower port density have more market space. In many provinces in the south, SFU purchase scale has exceeded HGU. In terms of technology, from the perspective of cost and operation and maintenance, many provinces require SFU to support interoperability, ITMS and three-tier functions. In addition to differences in the number of ports, software functions must be consistent with HGU. Therefore, technology combined with the needs of the market has virtually promoted the "HGU" of SFU. The author believes that in the future telecom PON gathering, the "SFU" and "HGU" may converge.
Progressive socialization of optical terminals
Domestic operators are now generally purchasing all kinds of fixed-line terminal products directly from the purchasing department to the manufacturer, which is presented to new account users for use in a package situation. This mode occupies construction investment, and the process is basically consistent with the purchase of system equipment. With the increase of business pressure, operators are eager to cancel the subsidies for fixed-line terminals, instead, consumers buy fixed-line terminals themselves, and adopt a sales model similar to mobile phones.
For fixed-line terminal products, whether SFU or HGU, they are highly customized products at present, and they do not have the conditions of purchasing completely by themselves like mobile phones. Based on these conditions, operators mainly use some disguised ways to ease the financial pressure of terminal procurement, such as borrowing funds platform installment payment, introducing agent direct selling, etc. We generally believe that these reduced subsidies and the introduction of external partners should be the mode of socialized sales.
At present, there is no unified operation mode and process of socialized sales in China. Provincial operators formulate different socialized operation mechanisms according to their actual conditions. The main types are:
1. Under the control of operators, the end-user subsidy should be abolished and the agent should be introduced to implement the terminal sales behavior.
2, operators introduce third party funding platform, installment payment.
Operators'operating pressure is increasing day by day. It is an irreversible trend to reduce or even cancel the fixed network terminal subsidy. There are also advantages and disadvantages for equipment manufacturers.
1. On the disadvantage side, socialization will result in lower prices, more factories and poor operation in the allocated provinces, resulting in difficulties in landing or significant impact on landing volume.
2. On the positive side, for the provinces without distribution of collection and collection, we can achieve product access and sale in the province through socialization mode, reduce the impact of unallocation of collection and collection, and realize the contract.